The global foldable smartphone market is bracing for a seismic shift in the second half of 2026, as longtime rivals Apple and Samsung prepare to go head-to-head with new flagship devices. According to Counterpoint Research, Apple’s much-anticipated entry with its first foldable iPhone—likely called the ‘iPhone Ultra’—is poised to upend the competitive landscape and spark a surge in both sales and innovation. Meanwhile, Samsung is doubling down on its own foldable lineup, with the Galaxy Z Fold 8 and Galaxy Z Flip 8 set for imminent release, as both tech titans vie for dominance in a rapidly evolving segment.
On July 2, 2026, Counterpoint Research forecasted that global foldable smartphone panel shipments will reach approximately 27.5 million units this year—a 24% jump from 2025. Even more striking, revenue is expected to soar by 48% to about $4.4 billion, outpacing shipment growth thanks to Apple’s market entry and a growing emphasis on premium in-fold products. The average selling price of foldable panels is climbing as consumers and manufacturers alike embrace higher-end, more durable, and larger-screen devices.
This momentum is expected to be anything but steady throughout the year. About 64% of annual shipments are predicted to occur between July and December, with the third and fourth quarters driven by Samsung’s product cycle, Apple’s panel procurement ramp-up, and a flurry of releases from Chinese brands. The market’s rebound is unmistakably tied to these launches, marking a clear transition from a challenging first quarter that saw shipments dip 7% year-over-year to 3.9 million units, largely due to inventory adjustments and a lull in new product introductions.
Apple’s debut in the foldable arena is making waves even before the device’s official unveiling. Industry insiders report that Apple is set to reveal its first foldable iPhone in September 2026, coinciding with the iPhone 18 series. While some speculated about a possible delay, current indications suggest Apple will stick to its original timeline. The device, widely referred to as the ‘iPhone Ultra,’ is expected to sport a book-type design with a 7.7-inch, 4:3 horizontal display—delivering an experience akin to the iPad mini. According to Insight Korea, this move is expected to both broaden the overall market and intensify the battle for market share.
Market researchers at IDC and Counterpoint anticipate that global foldable smartphone shipments will leap from 20.6 million units in 2025 to 26.78 million in 2026, representing roughly 30% growth. Apple’s entry is seen as a catalyst for greater consumer awareness and demand, potentially shifting foldables from niche products to mainstream premium devices. As Counterpoint’s senior analyst Enz Chi put it, “In-fold foldables are moving from secondary form factors to mainstream, driven by productivity, large-screen experience, and higher profitability.”
Samsung Electronics, which pioneered the foldable category in 2019, currently leads the market with a 40% share based on 2025 shipments. However, Apple is projected to quickly close the gap, capturing about 28-29% of the market in its first year—just behind Samsung’s expected 31% and ahead of Huawei’s 24%. In North America, Apple is forecasted to overtake Samsung, seizing a 46% share versus Samsung’s 29%, according to Counterpoint.
To counter Apple’s arrival, Samsung is reorganizing its foldable lineup. Starting with the 8th generation devices, the Galaxy Z Fold 8 and Galaxy Z Flip 8, Samsung is introducing a new ‘wide’ form factor that shortens the vertical length while widening the display. These devices are set to launch on July 22, 2026, as inadvertently revealed by a Samsung Malaysia shopping voucher promotion. The Galaxy Z Fold 8 is expected to feature a wider screen ratio, while the Flip 8 will boast enhanced performance and AI capabilities. Samsung has teased these changes through official videos and social media campaigns, building anticipation for the upcoming Galaxy Unpacked event in mid-July.
Samsung’s strategy is clear: offer a broader range of choices, enhance usability, and set new standards for immersive, natural experiences in the age of AI. As a Samsung spokesperson explained, “It’s not just about increasing the number of products, but about expanding the foldable experience based on seven generations of technology and user understanding, and providing diverse options to meet different needs.”
Behind the scenes, the battle extends to the supply chain. Samsung Display has rapidly increased its market share in foldable smartphone panels, jumping from 15% in Q1 2025 to 22% in Q1 2026 by expanding shipments to both Samsung Electronics and Chinese brands like OPPO and Vivo. Meanwhile, Chinese supplier BOE remains the largest, with a 45% share, though it has lost ground—down from 52% the previous year—amid a 19% drop in shipments. Other panel makers such as Visionox and TCL CSOT have also seen declines, while Tianma’s shipments have surged 578% year-over-year, boosting its share from 1% to 4%.
Apple’s foldable iPhone is widely expected to use OLED panels supplied by Samsung Display, setting up a unique dynamic where Samsung competes both as a device maker and a component supplier. This could reshape the competitive landscape, as Apple’s demand for premium, durable, low-crease panels pushes suppliers to innovate and improve quality. According to Digital Today, “If Samsung Display becomes Apple’s core panel supplier, a unique competitive structure could emerge, leading both finished product competition and component supply.”
Counterpoint Research believes that the market’s growth is not solely dependent on Apple. Expanded use cases, the appeal of large-screen experiences, and improved manufacturer profitability are all contributing to long-term expansion. Still, Apple’s entry is undeniably a major variable—its presence is expected to raise the bar for quality, durability, and design, moving the market towards higher average selling prices and premium ‘book-type’ foldables.
As the second half of 2026 approaches, all eyes are on how these competing strategies will play out. Will Apple’s late but bold entrance redefine what consumers expect from a foldable phone? Can Samsung maintain its lead by offering more diverse and innovative options? And how will Chinese brands respond as the market heats up? One thing is certain: the world of foldable smartphones is about to become a lot more interesting.