March has arrived, and with it, the annual scramble for NCAA Tournament positioning is in full swing. College basketball fans are glued to every bracketology update, as teams across the country jostle for coveted seed lines, double-byes, and—most importantly—a shot at the Big Dance. The latest projections, updated through the morning of March 1, 2026, paint a picture of high drama and shifting fortunes, especially for programs like Alabama, Florida, Ohio State, and the perennial powerhouses vying for No. 1 seeds.
Let’s start with the Alabama Crimson Tide, who are making plenty of noise in the Southeastern Conference and beyond. Alabama notched their eighth Quad 1 win with a gritty road victory over Tennessee, a resume-booster that has not gone unnoticed by the NCAA selection committee and bracketologists alike. According to the all-important NCAA NET rankings, the Crimson Tide sit at No. 15 as of March 1, 2026. Other respected models echo this strong standing: Ken Pomeroy and ESPN's BPI both have Alabama at No. 14, while Bart Torvik's analytics place them at No. 17, and Kevin Paugh's KPI gives them a lofty No. 9.
What’s driving Alabama’s surge? Strength of schedule, for one. ESPN’s BPI ranks Alabama’s schedule as the toughest in the country (SOS No. 1), and their Strength of Record is up to an impressive No. 7. All this has solidified their status as a 4-seed in the latest bracket projections from both Joe Lunardi and Bart Torvik. Torvik’s model even gives the Crimson Tide a 53.3% probability of advancing to the Sweet Sixteen and a 22% shot at the Elite Eight—a testament to their consistency against top-tier competition. The machine learning source AMSTS also places Alabama as a 4-seed, slotting them in a region alongside UConn, Houston, and Nebraska. If the tournament started today, Alabama would open their campaign in Tampa against UNC-Wilmington, with a potential second-round clash against the winner of Arkansas vs. Belmont.
Alabama’s success is part of a broader SEC story. The Florida Gators are the league’s top-ranked team in bracketology, currently projected as a 2-seed and sitting at No. 5 on the seed line. Florida’s recent form has been nothing short of dominant: on February 29, the Gators clinched their ninth consecutive victory with a stunning 111-77 demolition of Arkansas. This surge has propelled Florida to No. 5 in Wins Above Bubble (WAB), just behind UConn, and they’re gaining ground fast. The Gators have upward mobility, with a home game against Mississippi State on March 3 and a regular-season finale at Kentucky on March 7—both opportunities to further burnish their tournament resume.
As CBS Sports bracketology reported on March 1, 2026, the race for the fourth and final No. 1 seed is narrowing to just two contenders: UConn and Florida. While UConn holds an edge in some resume metrics—and the Huskies own a December 9 victory over Florida at Madison Square Garden—the Gators’ recent results are hard to ignore. If both teams finish the regular season unscathed, the draws they receive in their respective conference tournaments could prove decisive. As CBS notes, “the draws they get in their respective conference tournaments could matter significantly.” Florida’s head-to-head loss to UConn might be a factor, but the committee typically weighs overall body of work more heavily than a single result.
Elsewhere in the SEC, bracketology projections as of March 1 show Vanderbilt, Arkansas, and Tennessee all as 5-seeds, Kentucky as a 6-seed, Georgia as an 8-seed, Texas as a 9-seed, and both Missouri and Texas A&M as 10-seeds. Auburn, meanwhile, finds itself on the outside looking in—No. 7 among ‘Teams Out’ and given just a 13.8% chance of sneaking into the tournament field. For SEC Tournament seeding, Alabama has already secured a double-bye and needs just one more win to lock down the 2-seed in Nashville.
Turning to the national picture, CBS Sports’ latest bracketology update slots Duke, Michigan, UConn, and Arizona as the current No. 1 seeds. Each of these teams faces a pivotal matchup in the coming week: Duke travels to NC State on March 2, Arizona hosts Iowa State the same day, Michigan visits Iowa on March 5, and UConn wraps its regular season at Marquette on March 7. These games could shuffle the seed lines in dramatic fashion, especially with the bubble as tight as ever.
The bubble watch is particularly intense this year. CBS lists TCU, New Mexico, California, and VCU as the “Last Four In,” while Auburn, Ohio State, Seton Hall, and Indiana are the “First Four Out”—a precarious position where a single loss or upset elsewhere could tip the scales. The importance of Quadrant 1 wins and avoiding “bad losses” cannot be overstated, as the selection committee leans heavily on these metrics to separate teams with similar records.
Ohio State, for its part, is fighting tooth and nail to keep its tournament hopes alive. The Buckeyes enter March with a 17-11 overall record and 9-8 in Big Ten play, but they’re coming off a tough 74-57 loss at Iowa—their second straight defeat and a blow to their at-large case. As of February 26, Ohio State was ranked No. 38 in the NET and No. 46 in WAB, but their 1-10 record in Quad 1 games underscores the challenge they face. Hosting No. 8 Purdue on March 1 is a golden opportunity for a signature win; Purdue, at 22-6 overall and 12-5 in the Big Ten, represents a Quad 1 matchup that could swing Ohio State’s odds dramatically.
Bracketology projections for the Buckeyes are all over the map. Some models, like USA Today and BracketMatrix.com, have Ohio State as a No. 10 or No. 11 seed, with many projecting them into the First Four play-in games in Dayton. Others, like ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, have the Buckeyes just outside the field, with roughly a 50% chance to make the tournament as of late February. Analytics site BartTorvik.com gives Ohio State a 52.1% chance to dance, but the margin for error is razor-thin. With three regular-season games remaining, every possession counts.
Meanwhile, the chase for the final No. 1 seed remains fluid. As CBS Sports notes, “the race for the final No. 1 seed is thinning out,” with UConn and Florida pulling away from the pack after recent losses by Purdue, Illinois, and Iowa State. Virginia’s hopes took a major hit with a 77-51 defeat at Duke, while Houston’s three-game skid pushed them out of the conversation, despite a recent win over Colorado. Selection Sunday is just two weeks away, and the drama is only intensifying.
With so much at stake in every contest, fans and teams alike will be watching the next slate of games with bated breath. The field of 68 is far from set, and the coming days promise more upsets, bracket shuffles, and heart-stopping moments. For programs like Alabama, Florida, and Ohio State, the road to March Madness is paved with opportunity—and peril. The madness has only just begun.