In the wake of surging jet fuel prices triggered by the Iran conflict, airlines worldwide are scrambling to adapt, and travelers are feeling the squeeze. From sudden fare hikes and slashed flight schedules to controversial new surcharges, the landscape of air travel in spring and summer 2026 is shifting rapidly, leaving passengers and industry watchers alike wondering just how much more flying will cost—and who will bear the brunt of these changes.
According to a research note from BNP Paribas analyst Matt Akers on April 10, 2026, airlines are scaling back their flight schedules more aggressively than in previous years. The disruptions tied to the ongoing Iran conflict continue to hamper global energy flows, sending jet fuel prices soaring and forcing carriers to make tough decisions about capacity and pricing. Akers noted that these disruptions are likely to impact flight schedules well into May, signaling a bumpy road ahead for both airlines and their customers.
The most dramatic moves have come from major U.S. carriers. United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby laid out the stark reality in a March 20 memo to employees: jet fuel prices shot up from $2.50 per gallon on February 27 to $4.88 by early April, nearly doubling in just a few weeks. The cause? The Iran war that erupted on February 28, 2026. If these elevated prices persist for a full year, United would face an estimated $11 billion in additional annual fuel costs—more than double its best-ever annual profit of less than $5 billion, Kirby warned. "The reality is, jet fuel prices have more than doubled in the last three weeks. If prices stayed at this level, it would mean an extra $11B in annual expense just for jet fuel. For perspective, in United’s best year ever, we made less than $5B," Kirby wrote.
United responded by cutting approximately 5% of its planned flights for the second and third quarters of 2026. The reductions target red-eye flights and off-peak departures on Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Saturdays, with entire routes to Dubai and Tel Aviv suspended for the foreseeable future. Other airlines have followed suit: Air New Zealand has axed 1,100 flights through early May, SAS canceled 1,000 flights in April, and Qantas, Cathay Pacific, and Hong Kong Airlines have all announced fuel surcharges or direct fare hikes, as reported by Reuters.
The pain isn’t limited to schedule cuts. United raised its first checked bag fee from $35 to $45 for domestic flights within the U.S., Mexico, Canada, and Latin America starting April 3, 2026. A second checked bag now costs $55, and passengers who pay within 24 hours of departure face an additional $5 charge. This marks United’s first bag fee increase in two years and follows JetBlue’s decision days earlier to raise its own checked bag fees by up to $9. "United Chase credit card holders, MileagePlus Premier members, active military members, and customers traveling in premium cabins can still check a bag for free," the airline said in its statement.
But perhaps the most eye-catching change comes from Europe, where low-cost carrier Volotea has taken an unprecedented step: charging customers an extra €7 fuel surcharge on tickets they have already purchased. On April 12, 2026, Volotea announced that passengers who do not pay the surcharge may be denied boarding. The airline points to a clause in its contract of carriage that allows limited and temporary adjustments to ticket prices before departure in the event of "extraordinary" fuel price variation. However, as reported by View from the Wing, this practice is highly unusual—and potentially illegal—under French law and European Union price transparency rules. Typically, surcharges apply only to new ticket purchases, not to tickets already bought and paid for.
Volotea’s position is that Spanish law governs this clause, but the legality remains hotly disputed. While the airline claims the surcharge can go up or down, there’s no record of refunds being issued when fuel prices decreased. Even more concerning, the airline has not clearly informed passengers about the methodology for calculating the surcharge during booking. That lack of transparency may run afoul of EU passenger rights, which require that published prices include all unavoidable and foreseeable taxes, charges, surcharges, and fees. Passengers shouldn’t later discover additional charges added to a flight they thought was paid in full. As one industry observer put it, "This is generally not the deal with a scheduled commercial airline, so no one should be expected to assume that it is. It’s generally a business’s responsibility to deliver the product they’ve sold. If they’re making sales in advance and don’t want to assume the risk of variable costs, they can hedge those."
While Volotea’s approach is raising eyebrows, other airlines are sticking to more familiar territory. Ryanair, easyJet, and Wizz Air all have clauses allowing them to collect increased government taxes or airport fees after booking, but not fuel surcharges. In the U.S., the Department of Transportation generally bans post-purchase price increases, making Volotea’s move even more unusual by international standards.
For travelers, the impact is clear: flying is getting more expensive, and not just at the time of booking. Average economy airfares for round-trip international flights jumped from $774 on February 23 to $998 by March 30, according to Kayak. Domestic round-trip fares rose from $336 to $350 in the same period. Katy Nastro, a spokesperson at Going, told CNBC that airfares for travel between late April and mid-May are up roughly 10% to 15% compared to pre-conflict prices. Deutsche Bank analysts estimate that if jet fuel prices remain about $2 per gallon above pre-conflict levels for a full year, one-way airfares would need to increase by approximately $50 on average—a 17% hike.
United Airlines is also introducing a new three-tier fare structure for its Polaris business-class and Premium Plus cabins, labeled Base, Standard, and Flexible. This change, announced April 3, 2026, affects long-haul international, transcontinental U.S., and select Hawaii routes. The Base fare offers a lie-flat seat but strips out traditional perks like advance seat selection, a second checked bag, and access to the premium Polaris lounge. Changes or refunds are not allowed on Base tickets, a significant shift from the business-class norm. "These new tiered options give customers more choice," said Andrew Nocella, United’s chief commercial officer. However, industry observers expect that what used to be the lowest business class fare will now simply become the Base tier, which means travelers may not see meaningful savings at all.
So, what can travelers do to keep costs manageable? Experts suggest booking early—especially for June and July departures—since airlines allow changes or cancellations for most non-basic economy fares. Google Flights data shows that the lowest domestic fares typically appear 23 to 51 days before departure, while international fares are cheapest at 49 or more days out. Adding a layover can save about 22% on average, though that comes with increased risk of disruption. Flexibility and a willingness to shop across airlines are key. “For a budget traveler, if you’re not tied to an airline, that will be your superpower,” Nastro advised. Redeeming points or miles can also be a smart move, as award ticket pricing has remained more stable than cash fares during the fuel crisis.
Even with a ceasefire in the Iran conflict announced on April 8, oil prices have retreated only slightly, and analysts warn that airfares and fees are unlikely to return to pre-war levels anytime soon. Airlines like United have hedged some of their fuel needs—about 40% for 2026—but that only softens, not eliminates, the pressure to pass costs on to passengers. For now, travelers are best advised to book soon, monitor existing reservations, and take advantage of any available perks or flexible fare options to shield themselves from further increases.
The skies may be open, but for many passengers, the cost of flying is reaching new heights as airlines and travelers alike navigate the turbulence of a world shaped by volatile energy markets and global conflict.