As the curtain fell on 2025, U.S. stock markets delivered a mixed message to investors: a year of remarkable gains ended with a subdued finale, leaving both optimism and caution in the air. Adobe Inc., a bellwether for the software sector, found itself at the heart of this narrative, its shares dipping in after-hours trading as Wall Street digested the final numbers and looked ahead to 2026.
According to Yahoo Finance, Adobe’s stock closed the regular session on December 31 at $349.99, slipping about 0.7% in after-hours trading. The share price fluctuated narrowly during the day, trading between $349.69 and $352.88. While the drop was modest, it capped a soft finish for U.S. equities overall. The S&P 500 ended the final trading day of the year down 0.74%, closing at 6,845.50, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 0.76% to 23,241.99, as reported by Reuters and CNBC.
This mild pullback may not have rattled seasoned investors, but it did break a four-session losing streak that had been building. Despite the late-year wobble, the S&P 500 still managed to post a 16.39% gain for 2025—a third consecutive year of double-digit advances. The Nasdaq Composite, buoyed by ongoing enthusiasm for artificial intelligence, surged an impressive 20.36% over the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, less tech-focused, gained 12.97% and closed at 48,063.29, according to CNBC.
Yet, the final trading day didn’t have the celebratory feel one might expect after such strong annual returns. Trading volume was notably light, with about 11.17 billion shares changing hands—well below the 20-day average of 15.8 billion, Reuters noted. Thin holiday liquidity can exaggerate price swings, and this year was no exception. “It’s perfectly fine in any bull market to have moments of cost,” said Giuseppe Sette, co-founder and president of Reflexivity, in comments to Reuters, alluding to the profit-taking that often occurs when liquidity is low.
Adobe’s performance was emblematic of the broader risk-off tone that swept through software names. Autodesk dropped 1.18% and Oracle slipped 1.17%, according to MarketWatch. With the market’s attention turning to the new year, technicians are now watching whether Adobe can stabilize around the $350 mark—a key level after the year-end dip. The company’s stock has traded between $311.59 and $465.70 over the past 52 weeks, and as of December 31, it sat above its 50-day moving average (about $339) but below the 200-day moving average (near $363), Yahoo Finance data show.
After-hours trading, which runs until 8 p.m. ET on the Nasdaq, can be a tricky period for investors. With fewer market participants, bid-ask spreads widen and price swings become sharper. This environment often magnifies the impact of end-of-year positioning and sets the stage for the next regular session—scheduled for January 2, 2026, after the New York Stock Exchange’s holiday closure on January 1.
For U.S. markets, the transition into the new year comes with a flurry of key economic data releases. The U.S. jobs report for December 2025 is due on January 9, followed by the consumer price index on January 13, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics. These reports are expected to influence expectations for interest rates and the outlook for growth stocks, including major tech names like Adobe. The Federal Reserve’s first policy meeting of 2026, scheduled for January 27–28, looms as another critical event on the market’s calendar.
Despite the recent declines, the backdrop for equities remains constructive. Artificial intelligence has been the defining force in markets for three straight years. The debut of ChatGPT in 2022 ignited a wave of excitement, propelling the S&P 500 to a 24% gain in 2023 and another 23% rally in 2024. However, as CNBC points out, 2025 saw the AI narrative begin to fracture, with the rally broadening out to other sectors and the so-called Magnificent Seven stocks showing divergent performances. Alphabet was the clear winner among the megacaps, soaring 65.4% for the year, while Amazon lagged with a 5.2% gain.
It wasn’t just tech that shone in 2025. Commodities had a banner year, with gold prices up more than 64% and silver skyrocketing by over 141%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average notched its eighth consecutive winning month in December 2025—the first such streak since 2018—while the S&P 500 ended the month down less than 0.1%, and the Nasdaq slipped 0.5%.
Market strategists are already looking ahead to 2026 with cautious optimism. Those surveyed by CNBC expect the S&P 500 could deliver another double-digit advance, though many anticipate a year of range-bound trading as corporate earnings work to catch up to the market’s lofty valuations. “We’ve seen internals change in a way that indicates us that 2026 could ... look very different than 2025, even more so than 2023 and 2024,” said Keith Buchanan, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments, to CNBC. He added, “The market is going to be driven more by fundamentals that are less dependent on monetary policy and AI infrastructure buildout.”
Seasoned investors are also mindful of the so-called "Santa Claus rally"—the final five trading days of the year and the first two of the next, which are typically a seasonally strong period for stocks. This year, the rally was muted, with profit-taking and thin liquidity tempering gains. Some see this as a warning sign that volatility could persist into the new year, particularly as macroeconomic headwinds and policy decisions come into sharper focus.
For Adobe, the next major catalyst on the horizon is its Q1 FY2026 earnings call, scheduled for March 12, 2026, according to its investor relations calendar. In the meantime, traders will be watching closely to see whether the stock can hold above its recent session low of $349.69 and perhaps reclaim the mid-$350s. The 200-day moving average near $363 remains a longer-term marker for many chart-watchers.
As the market prepares to reopen on January 2, all eyes will be on whether tech stocks like Adobe can regain their footing and whether the broader market can build on three years of remarkable gains. With critical economic data and policy decisions just around the corner, investors are bracing for what could be another eventful year on Wall Street.